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10-07-2008, 05:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperFly03
Auto industry is in the freakin tank. It is beyond reproach.
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You got that right. 1 share of Ford stock won't even buy a gallon of gas! 
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10-07-2008, 06:26 PM
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You may absolutely be right SF03... but when you say that oil is going to stabilize around $85... are you saying that because you think the economy will stabilize at a very low point? Or do you think our currency will continue to go up against other major oil consumers? If you're simply saying that the entire difference between ~$85 and ~$145 was just pure speculation? I dunno if I buy that. That's $60, 70% speculation...
Based on the information you have are you saying that the US economy started on a path of faltering back when oil first surpassed $85/barrel? Were the warning there in ~July 2006 that oil was getting too expensive at ~$70?
Also note that the $88 oil yesterday included a good currency run up against the Euro (but not the Yuan). Higher USD and lower US Economy will both lower the cost of oil.
So far the oil future's market seems to agree with me. If global economy stays strong oil prices will stay up. $90 or more. That means people keep their jobs, homes, and alternative energy remains a promising investment. The other option seems to be far more gloomy to the point where people won't really care if oil is cheap as our economy tanks, people lose their jobs, the real estate investments of the middle class evaporate, and the only reason people don't lose there home is because no one can buy them. Are you seeing a third option that I'm missing? Or perhaps a silver lining to that second option?
Is $85 the price of oil in a stable and somewhat healthy economy or in a recession?
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10-07-2008, 07:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flasher702
You may absolutely be right SF03... but when you say that oil is going to stabilize around $85... are you saying that because you think the economy will stabilize at a very low point? Or do you think our currency will continue to go up against other major oil consumers? If you're simply saying that the entire difference between ~$85 and ~$145 was just pure speculation? I dunno if I buy that. That's $60, 70% speculation...
Based on the information you have are you saying that the US economy started on a path of faltering back when oil first surpassed $85/barrel? Were the warning there in ~July 2006 that oil was getting too expensive at ~$70?
Also note that the $88 oil yesterday included a good currency run up against the Euro (but not the Yuan). Higher USD and lower US Economy will both lower the cost of oil.
So far the oil future's market seems to agree with me. If global economy stays strong oil prices will stay up. $90 or more. That means people keep their jobs, homes, and alternative energy remains a promising investment. The other option seems to be far more gloomy to the point where people won't really care if oil is cheap as our economy tanks, people lose their jobs, the real estate investments of the middle class evaporate, and the only reason people don't lose there home is because no one can buy them. Are you seeing a third option that I'm missing? Or perhaps a silver lining to that second option?
Is $85 the price of oil in a stable and somewhat healthy economy or in a recession?
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Given the events transpiring the $85 may be a bit high and more to the liking of a modestly healthy economy than to the impending doom cast over our markets. Short run $70's may be in order as the entire system melts down.
People are going to lose their jobs. People will lose their homes. Prices will continue to crash. Leverage will unwind. Billions will be lost. Period.
And Yes $145 was pure speculation. More than 50% of ALL positions held in oil futures are speculative.
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10-08-2008, 05:33 AM
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The speculation is gone and look what's happening. They don't want oil because of lack of demand.
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10-08-2008, 08:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Simul4ti0n
The speculation is gone and look what's happening. They don't want oil because of lack of demand.
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And that boys and girls is how speculation when the music stops... with a resounding crash... We've now shaved almost 50% from the peak in about 3 months... thats a pretty steep dive.
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10-08-2008, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Simul4ti0n
The speculation is gone and look what's happening. They don't want oil because of lack of demand.
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I've told yall time and time again that there was too much speculation in the market.
$100+ isn't natural. Yes, oil had been historically low and due for a run up but not to $100+, especially $145.
I stand by my claims.
Bring on the depression... it may drive oil back down into the $60's if it hits hard enough. Seriously.
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10-08-2008, 11:42 AM
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...I don't want a depression  My job security isn't *that* good.
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10-08-2008, 03:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flasher702
...I don't want a depression My job security isn't *that* good. |
Somebody's goin to lose their job over this. It may be me or it may be you or someone else but it is necessary to unwind all this leverage.
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10-08-2008, 05:08 PM
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Having speculated that oil could plummet, I have no idea what will happen. Anything could happen in this market, and it would take an enormous amount of inside information from many sources to have any idea where oil prices will go. My point all along has been that it is possible that oil could go back to where it was in the 90s(inflation adjusted). There are so many mixed signals out there that it is hard to know what is true and what isn't.
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10-08-2008, 08:58 PM
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Interesting is all i can say. Interesting.
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10-08-2008, 09:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fidgewinkle
Having speculated that oil could plummet, I have no idea what will happen. Anything could happen in this market, and it would take an enormous amount of inside information from many sources to have any idea where oil prices will go. My point all along has been that it is possible that oil could go back to where it was in the 90s(inflation adjusted). There are so many mixed signals out there that it is hard to know what is true and what isn't.
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Very good point.
I'm not sure it will go that low but it very well could.
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10-16-2008, 09:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperFly03
I've told yall time and time again that there was too much speculation in the market.
$100+ isn't natural. Yes, oil had been historically low and due for a run up but not to $100+, especially $145.
I stand by my claims.
Bring on the depression... it may drive oil back down into the $60's if it hits hard enough. Seriously.
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Depression hasn't even hit yet and we're into the 60's...
Crude futures drop below $70 per barrel - MarketWatch
Quote:
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November crude fell to a low of $69.15 and was last down $4.58 at $69.96 on Globex.
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At this rate it's going to take people two decades to break even on those Prius's... 
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10-16-2008, 09:04 AM
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My ExxonMobil stock has lost all of it's profits since I've gotten it now...
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Originally Posted by RyanLucier
Try and vandalize my car when I'm standing next to you and you'll have 235 pounds of all different flavors of badass.
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10-16-2008, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BaldEagle
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Hmmm... and people called my projections aggressive 
Makes my Shelby GT500 look better and better everyday. 14MPG FTW!
But seriously though, this will have a devistating effect on my audit client but oh well I'd much rather be workin hard at work and having a lighter load on my wallet. 
I really didn't think crude would shed this much that fast. Like I said above I was expecting $60's in a depression/severe recession (synonymous?  ) but not where we are now. This is all emotional trading... but hey with my severely limited exposure to stock (due to independence rules as a CPA) I'll keep rooting for a bear oil market.
Flash: Told ya there was at least 50% speculation in oil prices
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10-16-2008, 09:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperFly03
Hmmm... and people called my projections aggressive
Makes my Shelby GT500 look better and better everyday. 14MPG FTW!
But seriously though, this will have a devistating effect on my audit client but oh well I'd much rather be workin hard at work and having a lighter load on my wallet.
I really didn't think crude would shed this much that fast. Like I said above I was expecting $60's in a depression/severe recession (synonymous? ) but not where we are now. This is all emotional trading... but hey with my severely limited exposure to stock (due to independence rules as a CPA) I'll keep rooting for a bear oil market.
Flash: Told ya there was at least 50% speculation in oil prices |
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