The Global Recession - How is it affecting you?

[huddy]

I've had a near impossible time selling anything on forums or fleabay. Impossible actually.

My ExxonMobil stock has absolutely tanked since it's highs this summer.

Food prices are ridiculous... absolutely ridiculous.

I've stopped driving except to go to the store each week for groceries.

I don't feel a major pinch, but I do feel it.

[halbhh]

Originally Posted by Scrum

The thing that is killing me and my girl is watching our grocery bill climb and climb.It's almost double now.Sure alot of it is due to the price of Diesel.I figured once prices(fuel) came down the trend would follow in the store.I'm still waiting!!!!!

Heard on some program toda (marketplace morning report) that one guy thought the effects of lower oil and food prices would hit grocery stores maybe in December (towards Christmas). That was someone who presumably should know.

But my guess is....sooner. Because we have entered into "deflation", and deflation is no joke.

[Viperabyss]

Originally Posted by TechnologyCoordinator

Dang, I wonder if that is true. I found this from last week:

PCB007 China Week: Layoffs at Foxconn are Only Rumor

I think this was in addition to the 650k people already sacked in the past 6 months. I wouldn't be surprised though, since their H108's net income was 14 million, while their 2007 net income was 72.4 million. If H208 is about the same as H108 (which I doubt), they're YoY income would be down over 50%.

[Viperabyss]

Originally Posted by halbhh

If China gets pulled down into recession too (instead of simply having a slower rate of *growth* (like say 5% instead of 11%)), well....

that would not be good.

I would definitely not be surprised.

[Scrum]

Originally Posted by halbhh

Heard on some program toda (marketplace morning report) that one guy thought the effects of lower oil and food prices would hit grocery stores maybe in December (towards Christmas). That was someone who presumably should know.

But my guess is....sooner. Because we have entered into "deflation", and deflation is no joke.

I'm hoping it will come sooner as well.I'm not much of a coupon cutter,lol.The other day I was shopping for some meat for the BBQ.I ended up going over to Costco(local food membership warehouse) and buying some in bulk to save a few bucks.But,what it cost me in fuel to get there kinda washed away my savings.It never ends.

Guess its a good thing when my only gripe in today's times is the price of food.Alot of people have it worse.

[1Tanker]

For the (young)guys/girls living with their parents, they generally don't feel that much... as that's a parents job... to do without, so your kids don't have to. I lived off my parents kindness for far too long... and am forever grateful to them. Even as recently as last year(at 42, my folks had to help us with a little, here and there), and it's real hard on a guys ego...when he can't fully provide for his family. The tranny in our '93 minivan went in summer '06, so my dad gave us a '90 Pontiac Bonneville. We drove it, then it calved... and my dad leant us his '98 Caravan, which we drove for almost a year. Then i finally got approved for my disability benefits in ~ Dec '07, and got a nice $15k check. We paid some overdue bills, and bought our '02 Caravan($8k after taxes). Sorry for my lengthy post, but i guess what i'm trying to say is that we do what we have to, to get by.. it may be embarrassing/hard on our pride.. but hopefully it all works out in the end.

[Scrum]

Hell I'm 39 and been out of the my parents house since I was 17.Taught myself alot of good fundamental spending practices over the years that are starting to show now.Plus even if I were in a pickle,they've both passed on so its just me out here doing it to it....I hear you on the ego thing though,because I'd probably die before I'd ask my girl's parents for help if I needed it.

[wuzy]

Yep. I knew nothing of the dot-com boom&crash back in 2000-2002. The only thing I cared about when I turned 15 was petrol price since we could drive a car by then.

[BaldEagle]

Originally Posted by halbhh

Heard on some program toda (marketplace morning report) that one guy thought the effects of lower oil and food prices would hit grocery stores maybe in December (towards Christmas). That was someone who presumably should know.

But my guess is....sooner. Because we have entered into "deflation", and deflation is no joke.

Have you noticed the price of gold dropping like a rock??? Yep it's called deflation prices are headed south, first energy (now), then perishable foods (Probably after the election but within a few weeks), then consumer products (Christmas sales out the wazoo with prices dropping by huge percentages), then food staples (Q1 2009), Consumer hard goods (appliances, Cars, etc, expect Mid 2009).

Congress is likely to bail out industrial expenditures for 2009 with their "pork on steroids" PhaseII stimulus where they plan to dole out B..B..Billions to states and governments for infrastructure, mass transit, etc.

Normally when the FED pumps money into the system prices rise but failing companies and falling stock prices are sucking up money faster than anyone could inject it so there isn't enough $$ to spread around so prices start dropping. Within the last year we have wiped out almost 50% of the markets value and more than 33% since just Mid-September that money is simply no longer part of the money supply to buy goods and services.

The FED being concerned about inflation simply took their eye off the ball and forgot the basics of the money supply when they failed to lower rates last month. I said they had no choice but to drop rates and then they didn't the markets cratered a couple thousand points and then they figured it out inflation wasn't possible because there wasn't any money left for inflation and then they came back to drop them in an emergency meeting.

As the economy tanks unemployment will begin to rise and with it credit card defaults tanking whatever is left of the credit system. This is shaping up to be a full blown recession so all we need now is some idiots in Congress to jack up taxes and we'll slide into a full blown depression.

[Gneisenau]

Originally Posted by BaldEagle

Have you noticed the price of gold dropping like a rock??? Yep it's called deflation prices are headed south, first energy (now), then perishable foods (Probably after the election but within a few weeks), then consumer products (Christmas sales out the wazoo with prices dropping by huge percentages), then food staples (Q1 2009), Consumer hard goods (appliances, Cars, etc, expect Mid 2009).

Congress is likely to bail out industrial expenditures for 2009 with their "pork on steroids" PhaseII stimulus where they plan to dole out B..B..Billions to states and governments for infrastructure, mass transit, etc.

Normally when the FED pumps money into the system prices rise but failing companies and falling stock prices are sucking up money faster than anyone could inject it so there isn't enough $$ to spread around so prices start dropping. Within the last year we have wiped out almost 50% of the markets value and more than 33% since just Mid-September that money is simply no longer part of the money supply to buy goods and services.

The FED being concerned about inflation simply took their eye off the ball and forgot the basics of the money supply when they failed to lower rates last month. I said they had no choice but to drop rates and then they didn't the markets cratered a couple thousand points and then they figured it out inflation wasn't possible because there wasn't any money left for inflation and then they came back to drop them in an emergency meeting.

As the economy tanks unemployment will begin to rise and with it credit card defaults tanking whatever is left of the credit system. This is shaping up to be a full blown recession so all we need now is some idiots in Congress to jack up taxes and we'll slide into a full blown depression.

Anyone bet we have a retro-ractive tax increase back dated to January 1, 2009 come sometime around April or May of next year? (Only on companies of course.) Anyone want to bet on a windfall profits tax next year too?

[BaldEagle]

Originally Posted by Gneisenau

Anyone bet we have a retro-ractive tax increase back dated to January 1, 2009 come sometime around April or May of next year? (Only on companies of course.) Anyone want to bet on a windfall profits tax next year too?

Not that anyone needs to worry now but I'd suggest taking any capital "gains" before the end of the year or plan on being taxed up the wazoo on them.

[brentpresley]

What are these "gains" you speak of.

[BaldEagle]

Originally Posted by brentpresley

What are these "gains" you speak of.

For me it's called short ETF's QID FTW....

[wuzy]

Originally Posted by BaldEagle

For me it's called short ETF's QID FTW....

Yeh, inverse ETFs like QID and REW are quite fascinating, a pat on the back for whom ever benefited from them this month. I read they don't play well with a volatile market. And I think it's probably a little late to buy them now if the indexes have bottomed out.

[BaldEagle]

Originally Posted by wuzy

Yeh, inverse ETFs like QID and REW are quite fascinating, a pat on the back for whom ever benefited from them this month. I read they don't play well with a volatile market. And I think it's probably a little late to buy them now if the indexes have bottomed out.

I've used QID on and off as the market declined earlier this year but it sold off when we hit 1,600 (NASDAQ) last month ((stop sale) Yes, They do actually work in the real world) because I didn't see it going down from there. Right now as we bounce right at 8300-8500 the short ETF's have probably played out because I don't see much of a downside from here (7,000 by year end) )unless we go really into the tank in which case we could be under 5,000 to match "The Great Depression" losses. Yesterday even with all the forecast of global meltdown the market held pretty well at 8300 until the funds dumped the last half hour before closing. It barely recovered 8300 this morning but seems to be holding on to that low. When it does break that the next lower point of resistance will become 8170 (Yesterday's close and today's low) which is to be expected as we move down toward 7,000.