How Will the Economic Future Unfold?

[BaldEagle]

Ya got 0.38 acres, ya? It's a good trade off imo to have land with trees even if the house is small. You can always build more house, etc.

Not always... But in BC's case I'd agree.

One house I owned we had a 2.5 acre lot which was all mowed and man that is lot of grass to cut.... Now we're down to a more managable 1.5 Acres with about .5 acre of woods it's private enough but you don't spend all day cutting grass.

[beerandcandy]

edit:
maybe putting my home address here is a bad idea

[BaldEagle]

.32 or .38 depends on where the boundries really are but ya its a little small but its my first house so its doable.
based off of me getting this house
i do think the economy is going to tank even more
when i applied for the loan they aproved me for way to much money than they should have
i have good credit but they approved me for double of what i can realisticly afford
i see more banks going under and the FHA may have issues as well

Subprime Part II.....

Inflation fears send mortgage rates soaring - MarketWatch

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, a popular choice for refinancing, jumped to 6.18%, up from 5.78% in last week's Freddie Mac survey. A year ago the 15-year loan was at 6.37%.

Adjustable-rate mortgages leaped even more than their fixed-rate counterparts. The five-year, Treasury-indexed hybrid loan hit 6.16%, up from 5.80%. The one-year, Treasury-indexed ARM vaulted to 5.49% from 5.10%. A year ago the hybrid was at 6.30% and the ARM at 5.69%.

Here we go for round 2 Mortgage rates are almost back to where it started to implode.....

[halbhh]

.32 or .38 depends on where the boundries really are but ya its a little small but its my first house so its doable.
based off of me getting this house
i do think the economy is going to tank even more
when i applied for the loan they aproved me for way to much money than they should have
i have good credit but they approved me for double of what i can realisticly afford
i see more banks going under and the FHA may have issues as well

jeeze....what's your plan? I could imagine a bachelor doing 50% to house payments (with taxes, etc)...if they don't mind being frugal.

[Sailer]

edit:
hmm maybe putting my home address here is a bad idea

You mean that now we know where to go some midnight with the TP and rotten eggs? And hey, Folsom is right on my way to my brother's house down in Citrus Heights.

[beerandcandy]

jeeze....what's your plan? I could imagine a bachelor doing 50% to house payments (with taxes, etc)...if they don't mind being frugal.

oh i didnt buy a house for what i couldnt afford i used about half the loan amount
im gonna fix it up and just live there

[beerandcandy]

Subprime Part II.....

Inflation fears send mortgage rates soaring - MarketWatch



Here we go for round 2 Mortgage rates are almost back to where it started to implode.....

ya they are gonna raise the rates and trigger more forclosures and less buyers
talking about shooting your self in the foot

[BaldEagle]

edit:
hmm maybe putting my home address here is a bad idea

WOW, It's like 50 miles to either Home Depot or Lowes from there. Well there goes that investment plan....

[beerandcandy]

ya ill go to grants hardware
its much closer

[halbhh]

One house I owned we had a 2.5 acre lot which was all mowed and man that is lot of grass to cut.... Now we're down to a more managable 1.5 Acres with about .5 acre of woods it's private enough but you don't spend all day cutting grass.

1.5 acres is a nice size, especially with some trees. Even though our new home lot is only .17, its very pretty with lots of trees. Leaves out every window. That's why I liked it, along with the deck and good contruction.

[BaldEagle]

Latest in the WaMu saga....
WaMu hit by concerns that creditors are pulling back from thrift - MarketWatch

Credit default swap spreads on WaMu's debt widened dramatically on Thursday. Contracts are now trading "upfront," which means investors seeking protection against a default by the thrift must pay fees immediately. These contracts usually require only annual payments.

But when concerns reach extreme levels, sellers of protection demand money upfront too.

CDS on WaMu are currently trading roughly 13% upfront. That means investors seeking protection on $100 million of debt would need to pay $13 million up front and $5 million a year.

Such spreads imply a roughly 50% chance of default in five years or a 24% chance in one year, according to Credit Derivatives Research.
"The market is starting to say when these guys will default rather than if. It's a much more negative stance," Tim Backshall, chief credit strategist at Credit Derivatives Research, said in an interview. "This is the first major, well-known financial name that's gone upfront."

Now they are putting percentages on when it's going belly up.....

[BaldEagle]

Candidates' energy policies akin to putting man on the moon - MarketWatch

These idiots don't get it...
We don't want more government spending to go on top of the bloated government spending we already have!

Lets use the X-prize as a model and...

To solve the energy crisis you simply offer $1B cash for the first street legal electric vehicle to be able to travel 200 miles, be recharged in 10 minutes or less, and cost less than $20,000 and it's end of the line for gasoline.

[halbhh]

Calculated Risk has a couple of dramatic headlines:

Calculated Risk: Fitch Projects additional 25 percent House Price Declines (real terms)

Calculated Risk: 2.2 million vacant homes for sale

[halbhh]

Candidates' energy policies akin to putting man on the moon - MarketWatch

These idiots don't get it...
We don't want more government spending to go on top of the bloated government spending we already have!

Lets use the X-prize as a model and...

To solve the energy crisis you simply offer $1B cash for the first street legal electric vehicle to be able to travel 200 miles, be recharged in 10 minutes or less, and cost less than $20,000 and it's end of the line for gasoline.

You know, actually, that's a pretty good idea.

Maybe for a full recharge after a full 200 miles, I can tolerate 60-90 minutes hour, but for partial recharges after 30 mile trips, a quick charge is a good goal.

Perhaps with a $100M second place finish also, and you've got a real technolgy race setup.

[BaldEagle]

Calculated Risk has a couple of dramatic headlines:

Calculated Risk: Fitch Projects additional 25 percent House Price Declines (real terms)

Calculated Risk: 2.2 million vacant homes for sale

Speaking of homes for sale I have one just down the street for $475K that was built in 2006 for $600+ that's going on the market.

Seems someone has a problem similar to Bill Clinton with keeping their fly zipped up.

[BaldEagle]

You know, actually, that's a pretty good idea.

Maybe for a full recharge after a full 200 miles, I can tolerate 60-90 minutes hour, but for partial recharges after 30 mile trips, a quick charge is a good goal.

Perhaps with a $100M second place finish also, and you've got a real technolgy race setup.

You're thinking of a commuter only vehicle I'm looking to kill off the gasoline powered cars completely. To kill off the gasoline engine you first of all have to replace the gas station with something comperable and how long do you spend at the gas station (10 minutes at the most). The 200 miles I think is actually a relatively short range to start with because you're really only going to get about 2/3 in real operation, but it makes the vehicle economically viable. What you really want to hit to wipe out the gas car is more on the order of 600 miles so you can actually travel around 400 miles with hills, AC, radio, lights, etc...

Maybe you could put up with that 90 minute charge but if you want to travel anywhere other than back and forth to work charging your car for 60-90 minutes every 3 hours isn't going to get you very far. When I travel to Wisconsin it's over 600 miles in one day so I'm not going to spend 1.5 hours charging a vehicle every 3 hours or the trip goes from 10 hours to 16 hours. Now if I were to drive from Pittsburgh to Disney World again it's....

[Sailer]

You're thinking of a commuter only vehicle I'm looking to kill off the gasoline powered cars completely. To kill off the gasoline engine you first of all have to replace the gas station with something comperable and how long do you spend at the gas station (10 minutes at the most). The 200 miles I think is actually a relatively short range to start with because you're really only going to get about 2/3 in real operation, but it makes the vehicle economically viable. What you really want to hit to wipe out the gas car is more on the order of 600 miles so you can actually travel around 400 miles with hills, AC, radio, lights, etc...

Maybe you could put up with that 90 minute charge but if you want to travel anywhere other than back and forth to work charging your car for 60-90 minutes every 3 hours isn't going to get you very far. When I travel to Wisconsin it's over 600 miles in one day so I'm not going to spend 1.5 hours charging a vehicle every 3 hours or the trip goes from 10 hours to 16 hours. Now if I were to drive from Pittsburgh to Disney World again it's....

Yeah, and in many of the western states, a 400+ mile drive is common. Add in a lot of mountains, hot summers that demand air conditioning, and an all electric car becomes a joke. I can see hybrids, but that's the extent of it for now. Of course, the auto companies need to get serious about their hybrids, many of which only get 35-40 MPG. A fair number of gas and diesel cars get better than that. And there's the price. Currently (pun intended), hybrid cars are selling for such a premium that there is no economic sense to buy one, compared to a high efficiency gas or diesel engined car.

Back to economics, I see WM is headed for the hole again. Do I gamble a couple thousand, or do I accept what losses I have?

[BaldEagle]

Yeah, and in many of the western states, a 400+ mile drive is common. Add in a lot of mountains, hot summers that demand air conditioning, and an all electric car becomes a joke. I can see hybrids, but that's the extent of it for now. Of course, the auto companies need to get serious about their hybrids, many of which only get 35-40 MPG. A fair number of gas and diesel cars get better than that. And there's the price. Currently (pun intended), hybrid cars are selling for such a premium that there is no economic sense to buy one, compared to a high efficiency gas or diesel engined car.

Back to economics, I see WM is headed for the hole again. Do I gamble a couple thousand, or do I accept what losses I have?

That's why I've said before you need to top the 400 mile mark...I was born out in Nebraska and I've driven out in the west and mid-west in every state but Idaho. It's not like the East Coasters and West Coasters think 50+ miles per exit isn't that uncommon out there.

Mountains....They call the appalachians mountains yea 2500' here that's what they call a "peak" no wonder they have absolutely no clue what an electric car would really have to do. Imagine climbing through some of those 11,000' passes with that 40 mile range electric you'd never make it to the top. If you did of course you'd be fully charged on the backside but until you can make the summit the car has zero value. How about travelling from Phoenix at 1100' when it's a balmy 117 in the summer up to Flagstaff at almost 7,000' it's only a short two hour drive right should be no problem on that 3 hour battery. A little AC some tunes a drive straight uphill, after the first half hour, how many miles you think that'll shave off the battery capacity? I expect you'd be really luck just to make the hour and a half and 4300' to get to Sedona.

Sailer, for your reading pleasure....
Washington Mutual shares fall further on liquidity concerns - MarketWatch

As for your WM the only thing I can add is...

[djgandy]

Yeah, and in many of the western states, a 400+ mile drive is common. Add in a lot of mountains, hot summers that demand air conditioning, and an all electric car becomes a joke. I can see hybrids, but that's the extent of it for now. Of course, the auto companies need to get serious about their hybrids, many of which only get 35-40 MPG. A fair number of gas and diesel cars get better than that. And there's the price. Currently (pun intended), hybrid cars are selling for such a premium that there is no economic sense to buy one, compared to a high efficiency gas or diesel engined car.

Back to economics, I see WM is headed for the hole again. Do I gamble a couple thousand, or do I accept what losses I have?

My dad's Audi A3 diesel averages 55mpg. 2.0l turbo 130bhp. It's a company car too so he doesn't even try and conserve fuel. With a bit of care hje could quite easily get 60mpg out of it. 35mpg is very poor by todays standards.

I've got a question for you guys. Where would you recommend investing money at right now? I'm in college right now so I don't have a large amount saved up and I can't put in in risky investments, so I just have my money sitting in the money market at 2.8%, which kinda sucks. I could put in a CD at my bank to get closer to 4% but then my money would be tied up for 4 years, so an extra percentage point doesn't seem worth it to tie my money down. Do you guys think I can find a bank with a higher paying money market, or do they all suck because of the freakin feds lowering the interest rates too much? I'm guessing that if I want to make more money, I've got to take more risk. Any suggestions?

Well UYG (Ultra financials) hit $16/s a week or so ago. If I had any cash spare i'd have bought that. If it dips down go for it. QQQQ is a safe bet too. Or try the Ultra QQQQ (nasdaq100) Always a good play if you think AAPL MSFT GOOG INTC CSCO are going to continue to make big bucks.

[Sailer]

I've got a question for you guys. Where would you recommend investing money at right now? I'm in college right now so I don't have a large amount saved up and I can't put in in risky investments, so I just have my money sitting in the money market at 2.8%, which kinda sucks. I could put in a CD at my bank to get closer to 4% but then my money would be tied up for 4 years, so an extra percentage point doesn't seem worth it to tie my money down. Do you guys think I can find a bank with a higher paying money market, or do they all suck because of the freakin feds lowering the interest rates too much? I'm guessing that if I want to make more money, I've got to take more risk. Any suggestions?

Here's a few of the best money makers, interest wise, that I have; Southwest Gas (SWX), Puget Sound Power (PSD), Hawaiian Electric (HE), Alcoa Aluminum (AA), and General Electric (GE). None of them are great moneymakers, (running between 3.2% and 5% dividend), but they are steady, safe, and sound. Banks are pretty much in the toilet at the moment, as Eagle pictured WM, so unless you're into gambling, stay away from them, though if they survive, they might give a pretty hefty return in a couple years.

At the moment, you might be best off leaving your money in the money market account at 2.8%. Its low, but its relatively safe. We're in a stagflation era at the moment, so there's really nothing in short term that will give a great return. If you had lots of money, I'd say to shop for a house or some other real property that's going at a very low price. Some people who did that during the Carter years made a bundle of money. But that gets back to the old saw, it takes money, lots of money, to make money.